Number of Diabetics In America May Triple By 2050

Filed in archive News on August 31, 2006

Well, gee. Nothing like good news to start the week off, eh?

If this theory is correct, that will make 48.3 million cases of diabetes in the US, nearly ten million more than predicted just two years ago. What's to account for the sharp increase? Mostly, unhealthier lifestyles that show no sign of stopping.

By the middle of the century, Narayan's team predicts, diabetes will increase by 481 percent among hispanics, 208 percent among blacks, and 113 percent among whites.

One reason for the increase is that, with better care, people with diabetes are living longer. But that accounts only for about a tenth of the growth; the ongoing rise in new diabetes cases accounts for almost 90 percent of the spiral upwards.

Diabetes is being driven by the obesity epidemic. So far, the needle on the scale has been going up, not down.

And Goldberg points to a scary trend: Once people have diabetes, they have it for life -- and there's been an increase in young people getting the disease.

"We are going to see a greater prevalence of young adults getting this disease, which means this explosion of diabetes is going to have an even larger impact on lifespan and national productivity," Goldberg says.

The predicted increase is primarily for Type 2 diabetes, which experts feel may be prevented in many cases. This makes the rising numbers that much more alarming, but it also offers hope. If Type 2 diabetes is preventable, at least in some cases, then good health is an achievable goal.

Narayan, an optimist, sees a silver lining in the gathering clouds. The huge increase in future diabetes cases results from a relatively small uptick in the rate at which new cases are being diagnosed.

This means a small decrease in the rate would have a correspondingly huge effect in lowering future diabetes cases.

Narayan points to studies showing that, with help and encouragement, people with prediabetes can regain healthy blood sugar levels.

"There are effective interventions available," he says. "If we could apply those interventions across the country, we could slow down the diabetes rate. That is the message here for me."

The interventions Narayan has in mind are designed to get people to stop gaining weight and to become more active. People can do this -- but advice isn't enough. It takes an intensive effort to teach people the skills they need and to stay in touch to keep them motivated.

That kind of program costs money -- but much less than a diabetes epidemic spiraling out of control.